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Política Internacional / 24/10/2020

Could Biden's victory provoke a social upheaval in the USA?

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Could Biden's victory provoke a social upheaval in the USA? By Heloisa Villela


It is a real risk that has become more concrete, and fatal, when armed militias, treated with respect and collegiality by various police departments, decided to act on their own and intimidate anti-racist protesters.

This year's post-election period has all the ingredients to be one of the most troubled in the history of the United States. And President Donald Trump is doing everything to make the situation even more confusing. But the shot can backfire. Trump wants results on election night, despite knowing that many states will take a long time to count the votes sent by mail. What didn't make it into the president's account was the fact that some states he was counting on to win may turn out to be negative for Republicans.

Florida is the best example. Trump hoped to repeat the result of the last election and take Florida, with the support of conservative Latinos, to this day anti-Castro. But in the last month, the elderly in the state, dominated by retirees, began to abandon the president. Covid and Trump's behavior in the debate may have sealed his fate and pushed Florida away the Republican arrival bill. The surveys are not definitive. They give a little more than 3% margin for Biden. But the institutes say they made changes in methods this year to avoid the fiasco of the past election when the poll results disproved poll numbers. The fact is that Florida hopes to count almost all the votes on the night of November 3. And if it points to Biden's victory, the hardest, and most definitive, blow to Trump will have already been dealt.

In addition to Florida, he may have another negative result on election night North Carolina. The states that closed the account in favor of Trump in 2016 may take a long time to present the results. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will need a few days. But all polls now show Biden with a good margin in all three states. Democrats are investing heavily in organizing vote counting in those states, like Florida and North Carolina, which could mark Biden's favoritism as early as the evening of the 3rd.

Either way, the horizon is one of confusion. If all the polls are confirmed, Biden can close election night with 226 guaranteed votes at the polling station. Another 44 would be missing. He has every chance to end Day 3 much closer to victory than Trump. But it will be necessary to wait for the final count. That is why it is so important to ensure a quick count in Florida , if the polls are confirmed, Biden can grab a nice slice: 29 votes at the polling station.

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